Garmin reports third quarter 2026 results on Wednesday, and this one is different from the last few.
The Fenix 9 launched on August 25. That puts roughly five weeks of flagship sales into a quarter Garmin just closed, which means Wednesday is the first time anyone outside the company sees whether the new flagship is moving at full price or sitting on shelves next to a discounted Fenix 8.
The release lands before the market opens on October 28, with the conference call at 10:30 a.m. Eastern. Garmin confirmed both in its September 23 scheduling notice.
What Wall Street is looking for
Consensus is clustered tightly, which usually means nobody expects a surprise:
- Earnings: about $2.38 per share, according to analyst estimates compiled by Barchart and carried by Yahoo Finance. Some aggregators have it at $2.41.
- Revenue: roughly $1.98 billion to $1.99 billion, per Alphastreet and the earnings-preview services tracking the quarter.
- Year-ago comparison: pro forma EPS of $1.99 in Q3 2025, so consensus implies growth of roughly 20%.
For context on how low that bar sits, look at last quarter. Garmin posted $2.81 pro forma EPS against a $2.30 consensus and revenue of $2.02 billion against expectations near $1.93 billion, then raised its full-year outlook. A print at consensus on Wednesday would be the more surprising outcome.
The quarter Garmin just had
Second quarter results, reported July 29, were the strongest the company has posted in years:
- Revenue of $2.02 billion, up 11%
- Operating income of $616 million, up 30%
- Gross margin of 62.4%, up 360 basis points
- Pro forma EPS of $2.81, up 29%
The fitness segment did the heavy lifting, with revenue up 25% and a 37% operating margin, worth $277 million in operating income. Outdoor, the segment that carries the Fenix, was the soft spot: revenue fell 2%, which Garmin attributed to the consumer auto and adventure watch categories.
That single line is the reason Wednesday matters for watch buyers. Garmin's outdoor segment is its highest-margin business, and it shrank in the quarter before Fenix 9 shipped. If the flagship pulled the category back to growth, the launch priced from $999.99 to $1,399.99 across 34 SKUs is working. If outdoor is flat or down again, the read is that buyers held off through the summer waiting for the new model, and Q4 becomes the real test.
Three things to watch on the call
1. Fitness margin, not fitness revenue. A 37% operating margin in fitness is unusually high for a hardware business. Some of the Q2 gross margin gain came from about $21 million in refunds of previously paid tariffs, which is a helpful tailwind that may not repeat at the same size. Strip that out and you get a cleaner view of what the Fenix 9 and Forerunner launches actually earn.
2. Whether Garmin raises full year guidance again. After Q2 the company moved its 2026 outlook to roughly $8.05 billion in revenue and $10.00 in pro forma EPS, on a 59.7% gross margin and 27.0% operating margin. Enduro 4 shipped October 6 and the MARQ Gen 3 collection shipped October 13, both in Q4, so there is fresh product to support a raise. The question is whether management banked those launches in the $8.05 billion already or left room.
3. Any commentary on screenless wearables. Garmin spent the year expanding past watches, and the CIRQA band is the clearest example. Executives have been willing to talk about new categories on these calls, and any detail on how a band with no display is selling tells you where the next product cycle goes. That matters for anyone deciding whether to buy a watch now or wait for the shape of the lineup to settle.
The Q4 setup
Everything Garmin launched for the holidays is now on the table. The Fenix 9 and Fenix 9 Pro carried August. The Enduro 4 at $899.99 brought the solar MIP formula back in October. The MARQ Gen 3 took the brand back up to $2,500 and beyond. Add the Forerunner 70 and 170 for the entry and mid tiers, and the fourth quarter has more new watch hardware in it than any quarter this year.
That is also the risk. Launch quarters cost money in marketing and channel support, and Garmin usually guides conservatively into them.
If you are shopping the current generation, the practical timing note is this: earnings week rarely moves watch prices, but the weeks after a strong print often bring the first real discounts on the previous generation. The Fenix 9 lineup and the still-excellent Fenix 8 Pro are both worth a price check once the numbers are out.
Bottom Line
Wednesday is not really about whether Garmin hits $2.38. The company has cleared consensus all year. It is about the outdoor segment, where the Fenix lives, and whether a flagship launch in late August was enough to turn a category that slipped 2% last quarter back into growth. If outdoor is positive and management raises the $8.05 billion revenue outlook, the Fenix 9 launch gets its validation and the holiday quarter starts from a strong position. If outdoor is flat, the story shifts to Q4 and to how aggressive Garmin gets on pricing.
We will have the numbers and the watch-relevant read from the call on Wednesday morning.
Sources: Garmin newsroom scheduling notice for the Q3 2026 earnings call (September 23, 2026); Garmin Q2 2026 earnings release and full-year guidance (July 29, 2026); analyst consensus figures via Barchart/Yahoo Finance and Alphastreet; prior coverage of Fenix 9, Enduro 4 and MARQ Gen 3 launch pricing on WatchesReviewed.
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